After the ECB interest rate decision, this week we will have the FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Nonfarm Payrolls.
Last week, the ECB kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.5%. US Q3 GDP came out as 4.9%, higher than the consensus of 4.3%. This has indicated that the US economy is still very hot. Although the US YoY Core PCE was 3.4%, which is aligned with consensus, it is still hard to predict whether FOMC will keep the interest rate unchanged.
The target rate probability for the upcoming FOMC Interest Rate meeting is now 99.9% rate remains unchanged based on the CME Group prediction.
For EURUSD, we have the following 3 announcements next week.
- 1 Nov (Wed) – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
- 2 Nov (Thu) – FOMC Interest Rate Decision
- 3 Nov (Fri) – Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate
In the last NFP, the result came out as 336K, which is almost double the consensus of 172K. This again is another sign that the job market is still very hot. It could be a reason for the Fed to increase rate.
Gold broke through USD2000 per ounce last Friday amid increasing worry that Israel would indeed push through with a full ground invasion of Gaza. This is another factor that we need to monitor. War tends to make USD and Gold strong.
Recommendation
With this outlook, to be on the safe side, for EURUSD, we strongly recommend all Ophiuchus and Limitless EA users to schedule to stop trading for this period starting from 31 Oct till 4 Nov. You can use the stop trading period feature in the EA to do that. You can also decide to start the stop trading for a longer period to wait for the dust to settle. (e.g., stop trading from 31 Oct and only start trading after the Monday) if you would like.
We understand that you might feel that it is more frequent to receive market updates recently and more intervention is required to control the EA. We are working on a new feature to manage the stop trading period for EA automatically based on upcoming announcements. Based on our current estimate, the new feature will probably be released at either end of the year or early next year. Please stay tuned for this new feature.
Disclaimer – Please note that Limitless Trading is not liable for our recommendation and is not responsible for any loss or profit caused by this recommendation. You should assess your personal circumstances and perform your own research to make decisions for your trading.
