Since the last FOMC meeting, the USD has become very strong and the EURUSD has dropped to below 1.05, which is a level that we haven’t seen since January 2023. Only till Thursday of last week, then there is some slight rebound for EURUSD.
This week we have US job data – ADP and Non-Farm Payrolls. They are the indicator that the US Fed will monitor closely to decide their move on potentially the last rate hike for this cycle.
This week, the US job data will be released as per the following schedule.
- 4 Oct (Wed) – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
- 5 Oct (Thu) – Initial Jobless Claims
- 6 Oct (Fri) – Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
As per our recent market update, Payroll and employment data become critical factors for the Fed to decide on its interest rate policy. The US Fed wishes to see the NFP reduce to around 100K.
As you can see below, it is slowly moving to that target but there are still some work to be done.
On the other hands, inflation will be another key factor, whether it will be rebounded. Crude Oil has already reached $90 per barrel, which is the level since Nov 2022. If it continues to be elevated, then it is quite likely inflation is coming back.
Another part that we need to monitor is Union Strikes. There is a trend that there will be more Union Strikes in US and worldwide. More union strikes to ask for payrise will force corporate to increase their selling price as their cost went up. As a result, this will support inflation to rebound too.
Lastly, US government might shutdown again as the stopgap bill was declined last week. We also need to continue to monitor the progress of this issue as it will definitely impact the USD.
Recommendation
With this outlook, to be on the safe side, we strongly recommend all Ophiuchus and Limitless EA users to schedule to stop trading for this period starting from 3 Oct till 7 Oct. You can use the stop trading period feature in the EA to do that. You can also decide to start the stop trading for a longer period to wait for the dust to settle. (e.g., stop trading from 3 Oct and only start trading after the Monday) if you would like.
Disclaimer – Please note that Limitless Trading is not liable for our recommendation and is not responsible for any loss or profit caused by this recommendation. You should assess your personal circumstances and perform your own research to make decisions for your trading.