Last week was a very volatile week. EURUSD dropped from 1.059 to 1.044 and then back to 1.059 on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls for September give a very big surprise to the market. We have to be more cautious in this coming Monday and the CPI announcement for this week.
Since the last FOMC meeting, the USD has become very strong and the EURUSD has dropped to below 1.05, which is a level that we haven’t seen since January 2023. Only till Thursday of last week, then there is some slight rebound for EURUSD.
This week we have US job data – ADP and Non-Farm Payrolls. They are the indicator that the US Fed will monitor closely to decide their move on potentially the last rate hike for this cycle.
Last week, the ECB surprised the market by raising 0.25% interest to 4.50% but at the same time signaled this was likely to be its last. This week, it is the US FOMC Interest Rate Decision. Will they surprise the market too?
This week we have a few important economic announcements that might make the market volatile. The US inflation rate is expected to go up in August. This is an important indicator to monitor as it will show whether inflation is coming back.
Jackson Hole Meeting ended last Saturday and more news will come out on coming Monday. US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gave a speech last Friday and his tone is hawkish, which you should have already observed on last Friday’s EURUSD price action.
Jackson Hole Meeting, the annual global central banking conference is coming this in this Thursday 24 Aug till 26 Aug.
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